Where can we go?

A lot of Republicans today have argued that this health-care bill smacks of European socialism, or a European “nanny-state” government.

Representative Jeff Fortenberry, Republican of Nebraska, discloses that a little boy the other day asked him, “if the government gets so bad, which country should we move to?”

Umm yes, Johnny, where can we find another highly developed country which declines to provide health insurance to over ten percent of the citizens?

Oh wait...THERE AREN'T ANY!

Ok, but there must be lots of miserable citizens of "nanny states" like France. Can't we bring them over to America to testify to the horrors of life under French medical care? Errrr, no. Because the French like their system.

Ferguson's pseudo-science of Empires

My good friend from Arpoador, who knows how to push my buttons, sent me a link to this recent LA Times article by Niall Ferguson (who i have railed about in a past post). Like many social scientists before him (including Paul Krugman), he has become seduced by the science of complex systems, with their self-organized criticality, tipping points, phase transitions, etc. I find this stuff really cool too. But how much does it really help understand social science (either explaining past social events or predicting future ones)?

The sudden collapse of the Soviet Union does look like the kind event described in the complexity models. But i don't think we can overlook the personal role of Gorbachev who could have elected to resist the breakdown but opted to facilitate it.

Now think back to the Great Depression, another collapse, it would seem, of a complex system.
But Hoover and the Federal Reserve didn't resist either, they took actions that probably accelerated the collapse.

Now think of the most recent crisis: Paulson, Bernanke, Geithner, Summers, and Obama all resisted the collapse--pushing back with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy--and succeeded in preventing another great depression. Billions of people whose livelihoods were saved should breath a sigh of relief that Bernanke et al didn't consult with Ferguson, who apparently thinks easy money and stimulus will cause America's collapse, whereas the near obvious truth is that they prevented it.

Last point: in the traditional use of the word, Empires need colonies or at least a large swath of conquered territory. What is America's empire? Puerto Rico, Guam? He can't be referring to a couple small islands. Ferguson must be talking about Afghanistan and Iraq but these are not America's colonies; they are policing actions. US losses in Afghanistan are very sad, as are the associated civilian deaths but the numbers are very small relative to past conflicts that ended empires. And recently the US and Afghan army took over the Taliban's last city in Afghanistan (Marja). So how do we see echoes of the past (Soviets, English, and Greek disasters in the region) in the Afghanistan of 2010?

Ok, really last point. The suspicion that he's become a total charlatan hardens further when he starts quoting that other great charlatan about "fat tails" and "black swans".

The Lantau Grind

Today's hike reminded me of the Grouse Grind in Vancouver. The ascent from the bus-stop Pak Kung Au is pretty much all stairs and no switchbacks so I found myself pausing frequently to catch my breath. Well the Serious Hiker's Guide to HK gives it 3 boots and that is not because of length (about 2 hours from Pak Kung Au to Ngong Ping).

The bummer for us was that from the very beginning we were stuck in a cloud from which we did not emerge until we descended to Ngong Ping (where there is monastery, giant Buddha, and a good vegetarian restaurant). We got nicer views (of the airport, water and apartment estates) on the descent to Tung Chung. One interesting thing about our route was the variety of public transit: tram to Central, Ferry from Central to Mui Wo on Lantau Island, bus to Pak Kung Au, and MTR back to Wan Chai from Tung Chung. Special note: Starz Wine Bar offers pints of San Miguel (Philippine lager) for 38 HKD (about 5 USD) just outside the Tung Chung station.

Recommended hike. I will have to do it again on a sunny day!

Krugman on insurance

Krugman answered questions recently for the New Yorker. Some of the answers were so well put.

example 1:

QUESTION FROM ERIK DONNELLA: Why should (or shouldn’t) health insurance be for profit?

PAUL KRUGMAN: I think at a fundamental level the point is that what we want is broad coverage—it’s a widely shared social goal—but that’s not what private insurers are trying to achieve; from their point of view profits are maximized by not covering those who need it most. Long ago we made the decision that seniors should have guaranteed coverage via Medicare; there’s no real reason to apply different logic to those under 65.

After reading this, I was all "right on!" "how could anyone not agree with this logic?" But then I saw the flaw...If private insurance is that bad, why do we use it for our homes, possessions, our trips, dental, rental cars...

I guess my answer is that I don't. The only insurance I buy is what is mandated by law.

Example 2:

QUESTION FROM NATE: .... how am I to make sense of the constant alarm about USA’s credit rating being raised in the news?

PAUL KRUGMAN: ...for now I would disregard the deficit hawks...

...I’m especially baffled by the idea of taking insurance against a U.S. default. If America defaults, we’re talking about a chaotic world—Mad Max, more or less—in which case, who imagines that insurance claims will be honored?